Monday, April 5, 2010

Keep on Truckin! Offbeat Indicator Positive

Kevin Helliker has a fascinating story http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303450704575160181383858928.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews in today's Wall Street Journal on an upswing in pick-up truck sales. That's good for the automakers, obviously, but I'm more interested in it as a positive for the economy.
As the story points out, about 75% of pick-up truck sales are bought by small businesses. If they're buying pick-ups, they must feel good about the economic outlook. More important, those companies have a disproportionate impact on hiring. If they are buying pick-ups, they are likely to be hiring workers -- at least day laborers -- to sit in the back of those club cabs.
I'm always fascinated by unusual economic indicators like that. They sometimes provide insights that don't appear in the big-picture numbers issued by the Commerce department.
One of my favorites was broom hardware. I recall that back in the 1980's a Standex International executive told me that his firm had a factory that made the wire fasteners that hold straw brooms together. He said that was a great indicator of consumer confidence, because when times were tough, home makers would make do with the old broom, even if it was worn down. When the outlook improved, they bought new ones. I don't know whether that factory is still in operation (Standex was acquired years ago). But there's probably some current equivalent. Swiffer pad sales?