Wednesday, October 19, 2011

When a President wastes a decade

Attended a dinner at Winsor School with old friend David Sanger, now NYT chief national correspondent (I met him 30 years ago when he was an intern in WSJ Boston Bureau). Have to buy his book, "The Inheritance." He says that it argues that whether Iraq was the right or wrong war, we need to understand how significant it was in consuming national time and treasure. He estimates cost at $3.3 trillion and the establishment of a national strategy that distracts us from both domestic planning and other international interests.
New anecdote: he recently met with a Chinese general who said that ten years ago the Chinese despaired of ever catching up to U.S. power, but "we never dreamed you'd spend a decade in Iraq and Afghanistan."
It's a reminder that the most powerful weapons are those you don't use. Saber rattling can often have much more impact than actually using the saber. The Cold War, the most successful U.S. war since WWII, was all about unused weapons.
It's also a reminder that when a president picks one big battle it will prevent him from waging other battles. They have to spend some of their political capital as they go along, but it's not an infinite resource. Obama has won most of the political battles he fought -- health care, financial rescue, financial regulation, Supreme Court picks -- but he doesn't have any political capital left. Because the fight for economic recovery turned out to be the most important battle, and he can't wage it any more, most voters think he's been a failure.

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